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Forecast Assumptions
2026: Cost of goods and product prices for the total bandage market will be adjusted based on manufacturing volume, CMS reimbursement, and distributor agreements.
Initial Base Bandage unit Sales Approximately $85 - CoGS $13 = $72
Gross Profit/Unit = $72 - $38(Estimated Distributor Costs @35% of Revenue) = $34/Unit (Net Revenue before G & A Expenses).
Forecast CoGS estimated at 27% of 2030 Revenues include advanced product offerings at higher sales price/bandage.
Net Income and Cash Flow Breakeven is projected by late 2026.
This detailed analysis compares the ClearikonFLEX bandage to traditional wound care products for treating a 5 cm pressure ulcer, considering product cost and labor savings.
Assumptions:
Wound: A 5 cm pressure ulcer requiring a 6x6 inch bandage.
ClearikonFLEX: A 6x6 inch bandage with a 4x4 inch opening. Changed every 5 days.
Competitive Products: Changed daily.
Labor: Average hourly wage for a wound care nurse is $80.
Current time per change: 15 minutes for a full wound change and 10 minutes treatment.
Cost Comparison:
Competitive Products:
Assuming an average cost of $22.50 per competitive bandage (based on a range of products).
Assuming daily changes, this requires 30 bandages over a 30-day period (a common healing timeframe for a Stage III or IV pressure ulcer).
Total product cost: 30 bandages x $22.50/bandage = $675.
Total labor cost: 30 changes * (15 minutes/change + 10 minutes/treatment) = 750 minutes or 12.5 hours.
Labor cost: 12.5 hours x $80/hour = $1,000.
Total Cost (Competitive): $675 (Material) + $1,000 (labor) = $1,675.
ClearikonFLEX:
Changes are once every 5 days. Over a 30-day period, this requires 6 changes.
Total product cost: 6 bandages x $85/bandage = $510
Total labor cost: 6 changes * (10 minutes/change + 10 minutes/treatment) = 360 minutes or 6 hours.
Labor cost: 6 hours * $80/hour = $480.
Total Cost (ClearikonFLEX): $510 (Material) + $480 (Labor) = $990
Savings: $1,675 (competitive) - $990 (ClearikonFLEX) = $685.
Estimated Retail Price for ClearikonFLEX:
ClearikonFLEX provides a significant reduction in labor costs, which is a major factor in overall wound care expenses. To capture this value, a premium price is justified. A good retail price would be one that shares these savings with the customer while providing a healthy profit margin.
Assuming a 30-day treatment period:
The total cost of competitive products is $1,675.
The labor savings with ClearikonFLEX is 6.5 hours/wound.
The cost of ClearikonFLEX should be less than the total cost of competitive products ($685) to be a compelling alternative.
To offer a clear cost-benefit, the total cost of ClearikonFLEX (product + labor) is significantly lower.
For example, if ClearikonFLEX costs $85 per bandage, the total product cost for 6 bandages would be $510.
The total cost with ClearikonFLEX: $510 (product) + $480 (labor) = $990.
This represents a savings of $685 compared to the competitive products ($1,675 - $990).
Therefore, a retail price of $75 - $85 per bandage for the 6x6 inch size with a 4x4 inch opening is a good target. This price point reflects the value of the product's extended wear time and associated labor savings.
5-Year US Sales Forecast for ClearikonFLEX
5-Year US Sales Forecast for ClearikonFLEX
This forecast for ClearikonFLEX US sales is based on the assumption of a competitive pricing strategy and a growing market for advanced wound care products. The forecast will be adjusted for inflation and will include estimates for the annual Medicare market and veterinarian market.
Assumptions:
Market Penetration - Percentage of Wound Market:
Human: Year 1 (2026) - 0.06%; Year 2: 0.5%; Year 3: 1.0%; Year 4: 2.0%; Year 5: 4.0%
Equine & Exotics: Year 1 (2026) - 0.25%; Year 2: 0.75%; Year 3: 1.5%; Year 4: 3.0%; Year 5: 5.0%
Price of Bandage, Annual Increase : The forecast of future sales figures incorporates a price per bandage increase that is based upon an estimated annual inflation rate, adjustment for improvements in the bandage, and new offerings including the incorporation of sensors.
Human: Approximately 10.4% per year
Equine/Exotics: Approximately 10.0% per year
Medicare Market: We estimated the potential market size for Medicare beneficiaries based on known wound types. Medicare covers wound care supplies, but reimbursement rates and coverage depend on specific circumstances (e.g., medical necessity, facility type, and specific codes). These estimates are for the total potential market size, not guaranteed sales.
Estimated Medicare Annual Expenditures (Approximations):
Pressure Ulcers: Medicare expenditures for pressure ulcers are substantial, with some sources indicating that a single pressure ulcer can cost thousands of dollars to treat. The total annual cost to Medicare is in the billions.
Diabetic Ulcers: Diabetic foot ulcers are a major cost driver. Studies have shown incremental annual costs to Medicare for DFU patients to be over $11,000 per patient.
Surgical Wounds: Medicare covers medically necessary treatment of surgical wounds. The total market is vast, as surgical wound care is a common post-operative need.
Skin Tears: Medicare covers dressings and other supplies for skin tears, particularly those that are severe and require surgical intervention or extensive care.
Medicare Market Share Projection:
Assuming ClearikonFLEX is able to capture a small but growing percentage of the total Medicare market for these specific wound types, a rough estimate of the Medicare sales component could be made. For example, if the total Medicare market for these wounds is in the range of $10 billion annually, and ClearikonFLEX captures a 0.1% share in Year 1, growing to 10% in Year 5, this would represent a reasonable portion of the total potential forecasted market.
Year 2 Medicare Sales, First Complete Year (Goal 0.5% share): If we approximate nine million potential patients x $85/bandage x 6 bandages/wound = $4.59 Billion. This is a very rough estimate to illustrate potential, and Clearikon's actual sales would be much lower (0.5% of the market) at least in the beginning as this product is introduced into the market. However, it indicates a very large addressable market. Actual patient market size, for all medical indications, is potentially much larger.
The forecast above for the human market, starting at approximately $2.09 million in Year 1 (only 1/2 a year of revenues), is a very conservative projection for a new product entry, reflecting the challenges of market penetration and reimbursement approval. The key to the success of ClearikonFLEX will be demonstrating the cost-effectiveness to healthcare providers and payers, particularly the significant labor cost savings and savings due to infection control.
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